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Latest Articles
     

Another Outing for Myth-Based Diplomacy
Global Asia, December, 2023
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Taiwan: Peril without Exit?
Global Asia, June, 2023
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Blinken's trip hasn't interrupted slide toward war
Asia Times, June 22, 2023
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Development and security in the 21st century
China International Strategy Review, June 21, 2023
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The Era of Chinese Supergrowth Is Over
Barron's, May 26, 2023
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Could China Become Like Japan in the Early 1990s?
The International Economy, Winter, 2023
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China's Coming Era of Slow Growth
Center for the Study of Contemporary China 9th Annual Conference, March 31, 2023
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Foreign policy of an anxious adolescent superpower
East Asia Forum, March, 2023
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Xi Jinping Won't Enjoy His Third Term
Global Asia, December, 2022
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Harvard guru gives Biden a D+ for China policy
Asia Times, November 23, 2022
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Why Xi Jinping Will Not Enjoy his Third Term
Asia Times, November 19, 2022
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"China's Future: Xi Jinping and After," video with Lawrence Summers
The Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard University, November 18, 2022
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Thinking through the China Hype
The International Economy, Summer 2022
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Putin's losses in Asia are bigger than in Ukraine
The Hill, September, 21 2022
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Ukraine Offers No Easy Lessons on Taiwan
Global Asia, June 2022
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Development, Sovereignty, Ideology and the New Great Power Competition
Keynote Address at the Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, December 9, 2021
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Was US-China engagement premised on Chinese political liberalization?
The Hill, October 14, 2021
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Letter to the Editor
The Wire China, August 4, 2021
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Biden cannot counter China with a team that lacks expertise
The Hill, July 7, 2021
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Hale Podcast Episode 11: Dr. William Overholt on US-China Relations
EconVue Spotlight, January 22, 2021
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China and America: A New Game in a New Era
Prism, Vol. 9, No. 2, 2021
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Myths and Realities in Sino-American Relations
The Wire China, January 10, 2021
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China BRI emulates US
East Asia Forum Quarterly, October - December 2020
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Myths and Realities in Sino-American Relations
Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies and Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard University, November 12, 2020
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The Logic & Illogic of China-US Decoupling
Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, October 31, 2020
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In countering China, the US must not lose its knack for nuanced diplomacy
South China Morning Post, August 7, 2020
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Trump versus Huawei: right target, disastrous strategy
East Asia Forum, June 21, 2020
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Renminbi Internationalisation Deferred
OMFIF, May 15, 2020
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Hong Kong: The Rise and Fall of "One Country, Two Systems"
Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation at Harvard Kennedy School, December 2019
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Hong Kong: The Rise & Fall of One Country Two Systems
Harvard University's Kennedy School, October 31, 2019
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North Korea: Peace? Nuclear War?
Harvard Coop, October 29, 2019
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To end Hong Kong unrest, China must empower city leaders
Nikkei Asian Review, September 12, 2019
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China and America: A new game in a new era
Naval War College Foundation Symposium, August 16, 2019
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Is the China model a threat?
East Asia Forum, July 7, 2019
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Managing Canada's Relations With China
Ninth National Forum on Canada-China Economic Relations, May 24, 2019
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Will Xi Jinping Succeed?
Kennedy School at Harvard University, March 2019
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China's Crisis of Success
ALPINE MACRO Featured Report, February 25, 2019
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China and America: The Age of Realist Geoeconomics
Remarks to the Carter Center celebration of the 40th anniversary of Sino-American diplomatic normalization, Atlanta, January 17-18, 2019
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Sino-American relations: a strategic overview
Edited transcript of an overview concluding a Carter Center celebration of the 40th anniversary of Sino-American diplomatic normalization, January 17-18, 2019
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China's Crisis of Success: Book Talk with Dr. William Overholt
Center for Strategic & International Studies, January 15, 2019
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China's 'Brilliant' Economic Plan Blocked by Government Fear
South China Morning Post, October 31, 2018
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Dr. William Overholt of Harvard University predicts global recession within two to three years
South China Morning Post, October 30, 2018
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Myths and Misconceptions in U.S.-China Relations
National Committee on American Foreign Policy, October 2018
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The West is getting China wrong
East Asia Forum, August 11, 2018
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Hope for peace on the Peninsula is not in vain
East Asia Forum, June 1, 2018
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Xi is no Putin
Nikkei Asian Review, May 15, 2018
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Is China Taking Global Leadership from the United States?
The Fairbank Center, June 21, 2017
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A Symposium of Views: What Are China's Global Economic Intentions?
The International Economy, Winter, 2017
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William H. Overholt: The Great Betrayal
The International Economy, Winter, 2017
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Duterte, democracy, and defense
Brookings Institution, January 31, 2017
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William H. Overholt: The yuan's transition to international currency hits a wall
Nikkei Asian Review, January 26, 2017
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Challenges put brakes on yuan internationalization
Nikkei Asian Review, January 11, 2017.
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China and the Evolution of the World Economy
China Economic Review, Vol. 40, September 2016.
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One Belt, One Road, One Pivot
Global Asia, Vol. 10, No. 3, Fall 2015.
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"The Enemy Is Us"
The International Economy, Summer 2015.
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The Opportunities and Challenges of Growing East Asian-Latin American Economic Relations: Report of the Task Force on East Asian-Latin American Economic Relations
East Asia-Latin America Taskforce, Pacific Basin Research Center, Soka University of America, 19 August 2015.
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The Politics of China's Anti-Corruption Campaign
East Asian Forum Quarterly, April-June 2015.
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Asia, America, and the Transformation of Geopolitics
2008
American security and prosperity now depend on Asia. William H. Overholt offers an iconoclastic analysis of developments in each major Asian country, Asian international relations, and U.S. foreign policy. Drawing on decades of political and business experience, he argues that obsolete Cold War attitudes tie the U.S. increasingly to an otherwise isolated Japan and obscure the reality that a U.S.-Chinese bicondominium now manages most Asian issues. Military priorities risk polarizing the region unnecessarily, weaken the economic relationships that engendered American preeminence, and ironically enhance Chinese influence. As a result, despite its Cold War victory, U.S. influence in Asia is declining. Overholt disputes the argument that democracy promotion will lead to superior development and peace, and forecasts a new era in which Asian geopolitics could take a drastically different shape. Covering Japan, China, Russia, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, Korea, and South-East Asia, Overholt offers invaluable insights for scholars, policymakers, business people, and general readers.

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The Rise of China: How Economic Reform is Creating a New Superpower
1993
In the late 1980s and early 1990s most Americans, including President George H.W. Bush and the CIA, believed that China would collapse and Gorbachev would do great things for the Soviet Union. Throughout the period, Overholt argued that China's reforms would make it a great power again and that the Soviet Union would collapse (an argument Overholt first made in 1976). The Rise of China was the first book to argue the case for China's huge success. The reviews mostly said that Overholt's views of China's coming success were absurd. After China's success became a fact, dozens of books have taken up the theme, mostly missing the central points: China emulated successful policies from neighbors like South Korea and Taiwan, so success was predictable. It also faces transitions that those countries had to make, and its continued success depends on successfully making similar transitions.

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