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The following is a bibliographical list of articles written by Dr. William H. Overholt. Scroll down to view the complete list:

2010 - present

2000 - 2009

  • "The Rise of the Rest," Joint Forces Quarterly, Issue 53, 2nd quarter. 2009, Excerpted from a report prepared by the Institute of National Security Studies of the National Defense University on global defense issues for the incoming Obama administration. [pdf]
  • "Putting Economics Back at the Center of National Strategy," in John R. Luman, Editor, Proceedings on Combating the Unrestricted Warfare Threat: Terrorism, Resources, Economics, and Cyberspace, Unrestricted Warfare Symposium 2009, Johns Hopkins University Advanced Physics Laboratory, 2009, [pdf]
  • "Globalization's Unequal Discontents,", December 21, 2006.
  • "The Terrorist War in Light of the Cold War," Nomura, October 5, 2001.

1990 - 2000

  • "Landmarks Of Policy Science: William Ascher's Forecasting: An Appraisal For Policymakers And Planners," in Policy Sciences Journal, Vol. 32:4 (Winter 1999).
  • "The Role of the Global Bank," plenary address to the 27th World Congress of the International Association of Financial Executive Institutes, Jakarta Convention Center, October 31, 1996.
  • "Tiny Chechnya's Global Aftershocks Could Bring More Chechnyas," International Herald Tribune, March 11-12, 1995
  • Project Leader and principal author, Forecast for 1994 (U), HI-1926-P (January 1974) (Classified).
  • "Democracy, Prosperity and the Rule of Law," presentation to Far Eastern Economic Review conference on Hong Kong's Roadmap to Continued Prosperity, Hong Kong Convention Centre, March 10, 1994.
  • "The Roles of Banks," January 7, 1993.
  • "Australia's Trade Prospects," address to plenary session of conference on "Outlook 90: National Agricultural and Resources Conference," Convention Centre, Canberra, Australia, January 30-February 1, 1990.
  • "Gorbachev Is A Failure; What Next?" BTB 352/1 (February 5, 1990).

1980 - 1990

  • Coordinator (with William Pfaff), The World, 1982-1991, Hudson Institute, HI-1619-RR (April 1972).
  • "What Went Wrong," BTB 190/1 (June 5, 1989).
  • "The Global Economy and Equity Markets," BTB 57/1 (June 7, 1988).
  • "Trade Imbalances," BTB 42/1 (April 15, 1988).
  • "Dangerous Months Ahead: The Bad News Behind the Good News," BTB 46/1 (April 29, 1988).
  • "Market Effects of Four Tigers' Loss of GSP Preferences," BTB 20/1 (February 2, 1988).
  • "Repegging Revisited," BTB 18/1 (January 19, 1988).
  • "The U.S. Deficit: A Perverse View," BTB 75/1 (September 15, 1988)
  • "The U.S. Trade Bill," BTB 65/1 (July 15, 1988).
  • "Rethinking the Fixation on the U.S. Trade Deficit," BTB 37/1 (March 17, 1988).
  • "Washington Begins to Bash Trade Partners," BTB 26/1 (February 12, 1988).
  • "Washington & the Markets," BTB 21/1 (February 3, 1988).
  • "The U.S. Trade Deficit: Further Reflections," BTB 17/1 (January 18, 1988).
  • "Changes in U.S. Defense Policy: Market Implications," BTB 16/1 (January 18, 1987).
  • "Equity Strategy for 1988," BTB 14/1 (December 28, 1987).
  • "Key Third Quarter Economic Results: What They Mean," BTB 9/1 (November 27, 1987).
  • "The U.S. Budget Negotiations," BTB 8/1 (November 19, 1987).
  • "The Global Financial Bubble," BTB 1/1 (June 19, 1987).
  • "Forecasting Methods: The Scenario Technique," in Thomas L. Brewer, ed., Political Risks in International Business (New York: Praeger, 1985).
  • "The Nature and Problem of Strategic Planning," Research and Evaluation Monthly (Taiwan) VIII, 8 (August 1984), originally presented as "Organizational Dilemmas of Strategic Planning," address to the staff of the Research, Development and Evaluation Commission," Executive Yuan, Taipei, Taiwan, 2 June 1984.
  • "The Third World Financial Crisis and the World Economy," lecture to the Young Presidents Organization, Taipei, 1 June 1984 and Hong Kong, 8 June 1984.
  • "Politics and the World Economic Crisis," address to the Educational Conference of Health, Welfare and Pension Plans Inc.," Loew's Bermuda Beach Hotel, Bermuda, 21 May 1984.
  • "Political Assessment Group Log," BT PAG Papers and Drafts Log, 1984. [pdf]
  • "Politics of Global Financial Crisis," PAG 136/1-D (December 27, 1983).
  • "Memorandum on Oil Prices," Bankers Trust, BTPAG 151/1-D, March 28, 1983. [pdf]
  • "Politics of Global Crisis: Talking Points," PAG 141/1-D (February 9, 1983).
  • "Predicting Regime Change and Instability," lecture to the National War College, Washington, D.C., 18 October 1983.
  • "Political Dimensions of International Business," lectures to the Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm, Sweden, April 1983.
  • "Political Risk Briefing Charts," Bankers Trust, BTPAG 131/1-D, December 15, 1982. [pdf]
  • "Political Environment Reporting Format," Bankers Trust, BTPAG 99/4-D, November 19, 1982. [pdf]
  • "Political Risk Assessment: Course Module," Bankers Trust, BTPAG 84/2-D, November 19, 1982. [pdf]
  • "Political Risk Analysis," PAG 124/1-D (November 16, 1982). [pdf]
  • "Political Environment Reporting Format," PAG 99/1-D (April 29, 1982).
  • "Assessing Political Risk: An Overview," Viertel Jahres Berichte: Probleme der Entwicklungslander 90 (December 1982) earlier presented as a paper for Friedrick Ebert Stiftung conference on Political Risk Assessment: Methods and Methodologies," American Stanhope Hotel, New York, 9 March 1982. [pdf]
  • "The Global Political Economy A Course Outline," Bankers Trust, August 10, 1981. [pdf]
  • "The Global Political Economy: West-West and North-South Issues," PAG 60/1-D (August 7, 1981). [pdf]
  • "Reagan's World," PAG 54/1-D (June 4, 1981).
  • "Forecasting Political Stability and Instability," paper for International Symposium on Forecasting, Chateau Frontenac, Quebec City, Canada, Bankers Trust, BTPAG 50/1-D, May 27 1981. [pdf]
  • "The World Economy Since the Mid-1970s," paper for conference on U.S. Foreign Policy and Oceania West--Strategies for the 1980s, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand, 14 August 1981.
  • "Political Analysis in the Private Sector," lecture to Foreign Service Institute, May and June 1981, and to International Management Development Institute, June 1981.
  • "The Art and Science of Political Analysis for Business", International Management Colloquium, Yale School of Organization and Management, 21 April 1981.
  • "Reagan's Foreign Policy: East-West Relations, U.S.-European Relations, and the Middle East," Address to senior officers of the Austrian Foreign Ministry Vienna, Austria, 4 February 1981.
  • "East-West Relations and the Plight of the West," Lecture to the National Defense Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, 28 January 1981.
  • "The Soviet Union: A Political Assessment," PAG 36/1-D (February 27, 1981).
  • "Global Politics in the 1980s: A Context for Strategic Planning," PAG 8/1-D (July 25, 1980).


  • "A Global Survey of Political-Economic Tensions Which Could Stimulate Refugees or Rapid Migrations, 1980-2000," HI-3072-DP, Testimony to the Select Commission on Immigration and Refugee Policy, New Executive Office Building, Washington D.C., 17 September 1979.
  • (With William L. Ascher), Forecasting for Policymakers, HI-3034-RR (July 1979).
  • "Principal Lines of Conflict in World Affairs," paper for panel on "The Chances for Peace," Annual Meeting of the Eastern Sociological Association, Statler Hotel, New York City, 17 March 1979.
  • "Contexts for Analyzing the Impact of New U.S. or Soviet High Technology Weapon Development," HI-2987-DP (March 1979).
  • "The Relativity of Proliferation Resistance and Its Attributes," HI-2765/DP (January 1978) (Classified).
  • "Warning Time, Response Time and Non-Proliferation Policy," HI-2767/2-P (January 1978) (Classified). Valutazione Politiche Globali, Italian edition of Global Political Assessment, published by Societa di Studi Internazionale, Milan, 1978-present.
  • "The U.S. Trade Deficit: Another View," BTB 12/1 (December 11, 1977).
  • Review of Robert Blackey and Clifford Paynton, Revolution and the Revolutionary Ideal, in Social Forces, LV, 4 (June 1977).
  • "An Organizational Conflict Theory of Revolution", The American Behavioral Scientist (pre-1986); March/Apr 1977; 20, 4; ABI/INFORM Global pg.493. [pdf]
  • "The Coming Crisis of Soviet Communism," HI-2535-DP (November 1976), later published as a "Trend to Watch" in Global Political Assessment, October 1976-March 1977.
  • "Scenarios for Thirty Important But Unpredictable Turning Points in World History: 1975-1995," Hudson Institute, March 1976. [pdf]
  • "Under What Social Conditions Can Peasants and Other Social Groups Organize?," paper for Southeast Asia Development Advisory Group conference on Peasant Organization in Southeast Asia, New York, September 1975.
  • "Revolution," HI-2179/2-D, paper for Southeast Asia Development Advisory Group Rural Development Panel meeting on "Peasants, Land Reform and Revolutionary Movements," Savannah (June 1975).
  • "An Approach to Long-Range Strategic Planning," Military Issues Research Memorandum (MIRM 73-3), U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, 15 October 1973. The original paper was subsequently presented under the title, "Concepts for Long-Range Strategic Planning," at the annual meeting of the Military Operations Research Society, Monterey, California, December 1977.
  • "The Sources of Radicalism and Revolution," in Seweryn Bialer, ed., Radicalism: Its Sources, Aspirations, Strategies and Consequences (Westview Press, 1977). Originally presented as a paper for Workshop on Radicalism and the Revolutionary Process, Research Institute on International Change, Columbia University, 5 February 1975. [pdf]
  • (With Herman Kahn), "Perceptions of Quality of Life: Some Effects on Social Strata and Social Change," in Commission on Critical Choices for America, ed., Qualities of Life (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington, Books, 1976). The sections following the "Summary" were written by Herman Kahn as a separate article and appended by the volume editor without either author's permission. They do not reflect Overholt's views.
  • (With Lewis A. Dunn,) "The Next Phase in Nuclear Proliferation Research," HI-2415-P, Orbis, XX, 2 (Summer 1976).
  • "A Methodology for Long-Range Strategic Planning," Hudson Institute, HI-1781-P (March 1972). This paper was later slightly edited and published as a paper by the study team, under the title, "An Approach to Long-Range Strategic Planning," Military Issues Research Memorandum (MIRM 73-3), U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, 15 October 1973. The original paper was subsequently presented under the title, "Concepts for Long-Range Strategic Planning," at the annual meeting of the Military Operations Research Society, Monterey, California, December 1977.
  • Founder (with Zbigniew Brzezinski, Publisher) and Editor, Global Political Assessment, an analysis of international political-economic trends published semi-annually beginning March 1976 by Columbia University's Research Institute of International Change. From 1986 on, published as Global Assessment by Global Assessments Inc., New York. After serving as Editor for 12 years, I turned the job over to Jay Woodworth and Sally Shelton Colby, who still produce it. Reprinted in Richard L. Merritt, ed., Foreign Policy Analysis (Boston: Lexington-Heath, 1975).
  • "Trends in Nuclear Proliferation Research" HI-2186/2-P, paper for Annual Meeting of American Sociological Association, San Francisco, August 1975.
  • Review of New Dynamics in National Strategy: The Paradox of Power, in Military Review, July 1975.
  • "The Political Game of Golf," Hudson Institute, June 1975. [pdf]
  • Major Contributor, Study of the Future of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Hudson Institute (March 1975) I. "A World Context for Aeronautics, 1980-2000," HI-2210/2-RR II. "Implications of Public Opinion for Space Program Planning 1980-2000" HI-2219/2-RR.
  • (With others), "The Implications of Precision Weapons for American Strategic Interests," HI-2204-RR (January 1975).
  • (with Marylin Chou) "Foreign Policy Doctrines," Policy Studies Journal, Vol.3, No.2, Winter 1974. [pdf]
  • "A Theory of the Ability of Social Groups to Organize for Political Purposes," paper for annual meeting of American Sociological Association, Montreal, August 1974.
  • "Theories of Urban Unemployment: A Preliminary Review," HI-2174-DP (December 1974).
  • "Revolution: A Bibliography," HI-2181-DP (December 1974).
  • "Incentives for Countries to go Nuclear," HI-2129-DP (October 1974).
  • "The Necessity for a New Strategic Debate," HI-2056/2-DP (August 1974).
  • "From the Nixon Doctrine to the Ford Doctrine: A Proposal," HI-2071-D (August 1974).
  • "From the Politics of Weakness to the Politics of Strength," Orbis (Spring 1974).
  • (With Barry Bruce-Briggs), "Canadian Stability," (January 1974).
  • "The Prospects for Mankind and Canada's Role," keynote address for annual meeting of the Canadian Association of Administrative Scientists, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, 31 May 1973. (Three and one-half hour speech).
  • "Organization, Revolution and Democracy: Toward a Sociology of Politics", Yale dissertation, 1972. [pdf]

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